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Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Systems Theory: Nintendo Holiday Season 001

Also, the answer depends a lot on exactly what the question is.

"Will Nintendo exceed the accumulated lifetime sales of he PS4?" Not during the PS4's active life, obviously. . . but since the PS4 had a four year head start, this is trivial and meaningless. Will it exceed the PS4 eventually? At the rate the Switch is selling, it could entirely happen; just not until after the PS4 retires, most likely.

"Will Nintendo take first place on a by-week or by-month console sales chart?" Certainly, and it almost certainly will happen in the near future. The PS4 and XBone are heading towards the ends of their lives, while the Switch is new. The expected sales curve will be very favorable towards the Switch, and only maybe switch over again once the XBone 2 and PS5 come out. . . and probably not immediately, even then.

"Will Nintendo take first place on a generation total sales chart?" Tough to say, since we don't really have any information on the Switch's actual generational rivals. Until the XBone and PS5 come out, we can't really say whether they will outsell the Switch overall or not. The 9th Generation could follow the same pattern as the 8th, or it could be a tight competition, or it could be a complete upset, its impossible to tell yet.

Obviously he's talking aboit monthly sales but you already knew that and pretended not to to suit your agenda.

Obviously it'll not overtake anytime soon a successful console with a 4 or 5 years head start. When it's all said and done? Maybe.

And people always seem to forget this: for console warriors this seems to matter too much, for the Sony and Nintendo what matters are profits. If you put together a the money nintendo made with their gaming division vs Sony's, Nintendo is wipping the floor with Sony. Sony has a much more aggressive price strategy than Nintendo. They need to sell more consoles than Nintendo to stay relevant so you see huge price drops on their hardware and software throughout its lifetime, Nintendo on the other hand does not do it often and rarely sells consoles at a loss (wiiu at launch was the only exception?).

You're not missing much, @Ryan_Si

I have all three. The only reason I even keep my PS4 Pro plugged in is to readjust my PSVR Rev2 screen size sometimes (which I use to play Splatoon 2 and many other Switch games), otherwise the wait for Death Stranding and other truly amazing exclusives has been a struggle. Not saying it doesn't have some good games, but the best games it has are also on PC (or are timed exclusives and eventually on PC). 

I was hoping Persona5 would change my mind on this, but after only being able to play for around 15min of the first 3 hours of cutscenes, I ejected the fucking disc. This is the problem with a lot of PS4 exclusives -- If I wanted to watch a movie, I'd watch a fucking movie. Where's the fucking gameplay?!

I still buy games for it to give it some love, but the draw isn't there like it is for Switch if you have a great gaming PC, all because of almost all games being multiplats after PS4/XB1 brought x86 to consoles (and death to themselves due to developers porting everything to all 3 now).

Bloodborne is great and my favorite PS4 exclusive by far... but no Pro patch really makes it look more dated than it should, and most people can live with DS3 if you're not into those games. GoW and HZD are alright to show people HDR, but their gameplay is mediocre due to the fact that they offer nothing new, instead giving players a mix of other games' gameplay and throwing a pretty package on top as if that's supposed to make up for the core gameplay feeling like a poor imitation of MGSV + SoulsBorne with some Zelda mixed in. I'm expecting the same from Spiderman - great for when I'm in the mood for a pretty girl with nothing going on upstairs, but that only lasts so long.
Hate to tell you but the DS & 3DS had the touchscreen & 3D gimmicks....
Nes, Snes, GB/C/Advance & I think the Gamecube are the consoles that didn't really sell on a gimmick.

That's not entirely true. The NES, SNES and Game Boy introduced features that were not in other consoles at the time, such as the D-Pad, shoulder buttons, link cable, etc. They're part of the standard now. One can argue motion controls are part of the standard as well.

The only console that truly had no gimmick at all was the GameCube, and that failed tremendously.


I feel like that's really an overbroad definition of the term "gimmick". At least IMO, any feature that later becomes common, if not standard, is definitionally not a "gimmick". A 'gimmick' is only properly an extraneous feature that *doesn't* actually contribute to the core function of _____. If it does contribute, its not a gimmick, and if others routinely embrace it, that's a pretty clear sign it does actually contribute.

I would also argue that one needs to distinguish between consoles that succeeded because of their gimmick, versus consoles that succeeded aside from ( or in spite of ) their gimmick. One also should distinguish between gimmicks that are core to a console's design and function, versus gimmicks that are more secondary. For example, the 3D in the 3DS is something I'd accept as a gimmick, but there certainly is no evidence to suggest it was the reason for the console's success. . . particularly since it was so extraneous, they made a "3DS" model without the 3D.

I don’t even think Nintendo needs a price drop to perform well on holiday season. Sony and Microsoft have to make massive price drops to even compete with Nintendo. Nintendo is going to be strong with excellent system sellers in Pokémon and Smash thst will drive the most sales in the season that attributed to most of the console sales 

Plus we are getting increasing amounts of third party support like civilization, Megaman 11 and more. Excellent. Excellently excellent. Nintendo’s domination is beneficial to all console gamers because:

1. Sony will drop their PS4 price so it’s dirt cheap to try to even compete with Nintendo, making it a cheap system similar to the 2DS

2. Sony will have to focus more of their efforts on their home console next gen

Competition is excellent. I am excited to see what happens next.

Switch will most likely outsell Ps4 in December. But too soon to say who will end up 2018 best seller. 

But you're underestimating RDR2. It will have massive hardware sales boost for PS4(and xbox but xbox can only compete in US). GLobally PS4 and Switch have been neck and neck all year. Switch outsold it for the first few months then Ps4 came back with God of War. 

Neither console will dominate. But Don't underestimate what RDR2 will do to Ps4 Hardware sales. Especially in Europe. Europe is the one continent That is stopping Nintendo from dominating anything. Sony is absolutely crushing it over there. PS4 sells more a month in Europe than it does in Japan and American combined. Switch is killing it in Japan but Japan is much smaller market compared to Europe and America. 

No doubt Smash will have a huge effect but that game comes out way too late.

I'm sure pokemon will effect sales but if i'm being honest..that game looks like Trash.
I can't find the link, sadly, but I did run across one article with a claim by someone from Sony that they expected it to sell 20M. I will certainly be glad for this to be disproven as telephone gone awry.

( Also, seriously, its quite irksome to see Sony fans bandy around sales figures for games, and quietly forget to mention that these are *multiplatform sales totals*. How many copies of a game that Rockstar manages to sell *across multiple platforms*, is not indicative of some degree of extraordinary success upon the part of *Sony*. They deserve credit for the amount sold on Sony platforms, no more. But then, they also seem to love to claim every multiplatform title as if it were a Sony exclusive. . . )

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